Energy Technology Foresight

8 de outubro de 2003

This is a Delphi exercise conducted by agencies from the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology, coordinated by the Centre for Management and Strategic Studies (CGEE) with participation of IEI-LA.

Delphi is a structured survey that uses a panel of experts to investigate a complex or imprecise issue using a series of structured questionnaire. It is designed to consolidate individual judgments systematically and usually takes two or three rounds to obtain a reasoned consensus and stability (the answers will converge to the median and will not have significative changes along the iterations). The basic characteristics of this technique are the anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback and statistical group response.

For the present exercise, 123 experts from academia, government and industry were invited to answer a two round Delphi survey composed by 16 questions, exploring technical economical, environmental, social and strategic questions. The first question was a self-rating expertise for each topic, allowing weighing the answers in future analysis.

 

63 technological subjects were selected from the report “State-of-the-art energy technologies and trends”, written in the first part of the project. Those technologies were divided into three areas: electricity generation (group 1), fuels (group 2) and transmission, distribution and end-use of energy (group 3)

After two rounds of consultation, technologies were ranked according to their evaluation using multicriteria analysis, which investigated the environmental, social, technical-economic and strategic aspects of energy technologies.

The results will provide recommendations for the Energy Research and Development policy and planning and to direct investments in Brazil.